拨开情绪迷雾：领导情绪不可预测性的下行影响机制和效应*

毛江华; 洪贝尔; 陈文文

doi:10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20260512

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心理科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5) : 1157-1170. DOI: 10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20260512

社会、人格与管理

拨开情绪迷雾：领导情绪不可预测性的下行影响机制和效应^*

毛江华 ¹^,² ,
洪贝尔 ³^,^** ,
陈文文 ¹

作者信息 +

Lifting the Emotional Fog: Mechanisms and Top-Down Effects of Leader Emotional Unpredictability

Mao Jianghua ¹^,² ,
Hong Beier ³^,^** ,
Chen Wenwen ¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

组织沟通中的信息不对称常使领导的情绪表达缺乏明确的情境线索，使下属难以预测领导的情绪表达。现有研究多关注领导可预测的情绪表达对下属的影响，对不可预测的情绪表达关注较少。基于情绪社会信息理论，研究揭示了领导情绪不可预测性影响下属的两条路径：领导情绪不可预测性会增加下属的认知困惑和焦虑情绪，进而影响其对领导的回避行为与任务绩效；当领导和下属处于关系建立初期时，认知路径的间接效应增强。关键事件法、情境实验和两阶段问卷调查的数据基本支持上述结果。结果表明，领导情绪信息与情境信息的不一致性会产生负面影响，可为组织的情绪管理提供实践启示。

Abstract

The complexity of the external environment exposes leaders and subordinates to situational disparities and information asymmetries, increasing the likelihood of emotional conflicts and unpredictable leader expressions. However, existing research has primarily focused on the effects of leaders’ predictable emotional expressions on subordinates, assuming that emotional cues align with situational information. In reality, emotional expressions do not always correspond with situational logic, making them appear unpredictable to observers. This study explores how leader emotional unpredictability shapes subordinates’ reactions. Grounded in the emotion-as-social-information (EASI) theory, we propose that leader emotional unpredictability heightens subordinates’ cognitive confusion and anxiety, subsequently influencing their interpersonal behavior and task performance. Furthermore, we expect these effects to be more pronounced in newer leader-subordinate relationships.

To test our hypotheses, we conducted three studies. A priori power analysis using G*Power indicated that a minimum sample size of 85 was required for the proposed model. Study 1 employed the critical incident method, collecting 427 valid responses. Participants were asked to recall and describe incidents in which they directly perceived leaders’ unpredictable emotional expressions, including the cause, process, and outcome of the event, before completing relevant questionnaires. Study 2 adopted a 2 (leader emotional predictability: predictable vs. unpredictable) × 2 (leader-subordinate relationship type: new vs. old) between-subjects experimental design. We obtained 248 valid samples via a professional online platform. Study 3 involved a two-wave field survey conducted one month apart among 386 leader-subordinate dyads from companies in the pharmaceutical, chemical, and food service industries. At Time 1, subordinates reported leaders’ emotional unpredictability, team procedural fairness, relationship length, and demographics. At Time 2, subordinates reported their anxiety, cognitive confusion, and interpersonal withdrawal, while leaders evaluated subordinates’ task performance.

Linear regression analyses and independent-samples t-tests were conducted to test Hypotheses 1 and 3, while the bootstrap method was employed to examine the mediating effects proposed in Hypotheses 2 and 4. In addition, simple slope analyses and ANOVA were used to assess the moderating role of relationship type in testing Hypotheses 5 and 6. The findings indicated that: (a) Leader emotional unpredictability was positively associated with subordinates’ cognitive confusion and anxiety; (b) Both cognitive confusion and anxiety mediated the relationship between leader emotional unpredictability and subordinates’ interpersonal withdrawal, whereas the indirect effect on task performance through anxiety was only supported in Studies 1 and 3; and (c) The type of leader-subordinate relationship moderated the indirect effects of leader emotional unpredictability via cognitive confusion on both withdrawal behavior and task performance. Specifically, in newer leader-subordinate relationships, the negative impact of leader emotional unpredictability on subordinates was most pronounced.

Our research makes several theoretical contributions. First, it extends the boundaries of the EASI framework by demonstrating how leader emotional unpredictability affects subordinates, providing a foundation for future studies that jointly consider emotional cues and situational information. Second, by uncovering the underlying dimensions of emotional unpredictability, the study enriches the theoretical understanding of complex leader emotional expressions and offers new insights into how such expressions relate to subordinate behavior in ambiguous contexts. Third, by introducing the mechanism of emotional complementarity, this research highlights how leaders’ unpredictable emotions can elicit complementary anxiety in subordinates, thereby expanding the conceptual scope of emotional complementarity within EASI. Finally, by examining the moderating role of leader-subordinate relationship type, our research takes a broader perspective on the interpersonal effects of leaders’ episodic emotional expressions, underscoring the critical role of relationship stage in emotion interpretation.

导出引用

毛江华, 洪贝尔, 陈文文. 拨开情绪迷雾：领导情绪不可预测性的下行影响机制和效应^*[J]. 心理科学. 2026, 49(5): 1157-1170 https://doi.org/10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20260512

Mao Jianghua, Hong Beier, Chen Wenwen. Lifting the Emotional Fog: Mechanisms and Top-Down Effects of Leader Emotional Unpredictability[J]. Journal of Psychological Science. 2026, 49(5): 1157-1170 https://doi.org/10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20260512

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