摘 要 以抑郁的绝望理论和最弱联结假设为基础，采用纵向追踪研究设计，应用多层线性模型分析考察抑郁绝望理论在我国儿童中的适用情况。结果表明：1、应激事件水平能预测抑郁症状的程度，并且在较大年龄儿童中具有更强的预测性； 2、虽然研究结果的统计显著性不支持以最弱联结假设为认知依据的绝望理论，但在一定程度上还是反应了该理论的适用性；3、个体认知归因方式可能在儿童阶段开始形成并逐渐发展成熟。

Abstract Based on weakest link hypothesis and longitudinal research design, We explored the applicability of Hopelessness theory in Chinese children using Multilevel Model Analysis, results suggested that :1. The stress predicted children’s depressive symptom, and showed more predict power in elder children; 2. The interaction of weakest link and stress didn’t show statistic significance to predict trajectory of depression , but exhibited the same trend that Hopelessness theory described ; 3. Childhood may be the stage that a person begin and develop his/her attributive style.