Abstract: From perspectives of scientific paradigm progress and characteristic of statistic inference, this paper focus on why, how and what kinds of field Bayes statics inference should be applied in psychology. Firstly, because frequency probability inference can’t satisfy the need of testing the reliability of theory while scientific paradigm is progressing in the crisis stage and revolution, so some kind of statistics inference which can test the reliability of theory should be introduced. Secondly, because of the meaning of Bayes principle and the characteristic of Bayes statics inference, the Bayes statics inference should be applied when one more reliable theory should be selected from theories. At last, the Bayes statics inference should be applied in the theoretic construct and theoretic discussion, and be used in the development and assessment of mental technical products.

Key words: Frequency probability, Prior probability, Hypothesis test, Bayesian inference, Statistics inference

摘要： 本文从科学范式演变和概率统计推断特征分析出发，就贝叶斯统计推断引入心理学的必要性、怎么应用、在哪些领域应用集中进行了论述。首先在分析科学范式演进各阶段统计推断任务需要、经典的频率概率统计推断不足基础上，得出科学范式处于危机和革命阶段时需要对相关理论做可信度检验。然后，在介绍贝叶斯定理及其统计推断的基础上，进一步分析了贝叶斯推断能解决理论可信度的多种假设检验情景。最后本文还就贝叶斯统计推断在心理学理论争鸣与建构、心理技术产品开发与评估具体领域应用做了分析。

关键词: 频数概率, 先验概率, 假设检验, 贝叶斯定理, 推断统计