Comparison of Preferences For Sequences of Consumption with that of Money: The Mediating Role of Goal Salience

doi:10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20230612

Abstract

Abstract:

Researchers have generally accepted the conclusion that people prefer improving sequences to deteriorating ones since the work of Loewenstein and his colleagues in the 1990s. Nevertheless, recent research using unlabeled money as outcomes has found the opposite preference. Because these contradictions are found in different studies, it is difficult to compare them directly. The aim of the current study is to directly compare the preference for sequences of unlabeled money with the preference for sequences of consumption.

This research consisted of four experiments. A total of 1498 participants finished those experiments. One hundred and ninety-nine participated in Experiment 1A, 428 in Experiment 1B, 445 in Experiment 2A, and 426 in Experiment 2B. Experiments 1A and 1B used between-subject and within-subject designs respectively to compare the sequence preferences for money outcome with that for consumable outcome, with these two outcomes controlled (Experiment 1B) or not (Experiment 1A). Experiment 2A asked participants to recall and qualify the importance of two goals which are “getting better outcomes as soon as possible” and “outcomes becoming better” in the decision-making process. The aim of Experiment 2A was to examine the mediating roles of these two goals. Experiment 2B further tested the roles of the two goals in the preference for monetary sequence by manipulating the gradient of the sequence outcomes.

The results of Experiments 1A and 1B showed that the preference for deteriorating sequences was stronger in the sequence of monetary outcomes than for the sequence of consumable outcomes (in Experiment 1A: χ²(1) = 68.37, p < .001, φ = .59; in Experiment 1B: χ² (1) = 88.53, p < .001, φ = .45). Furthermore, participants preferred deteriorating monetary sequence, while preferred improving consumable sequence. Experiment 2A indicated the mediating role of the goals of “getting better outcomes as soon as possible” and “outcomes becoming better”. Specifically, it demonstrated that, compared to participants in the condition of consumable outcomes, those in the condition of monetary outcomes attached more importance to the goal of “getting better outcomes quickly” while attached less importance to the goal of “outcomes becoming better”. That is, they preferred deteriorating sequences to improve ones(the indirect effect value of “getting better outcomes quickly” is .246 (95% CI: .120~ .404), and the indirect effect value of “outcomes becoming better” is .131 (95% CI: .042~ .239)). Furthermore, Experiment 2B showed that in the condition of sequence of monetary outcomes, “getting more money quickly” may be a salient goal which is not susceptible to the gradients of sequence, while the goal of “outcomes becoming better” is susceptible to the gradients of sequence, thus weakening a preference for deteriorating sequence when the gradient is smaller (the indirect effect value of “getting better outcomes quickly” is -.069 (95% CI: -.209~ .067), the indirect effect value of “outcomes becoming better” is -.070 (95% CI: -.159~-.003)). In summary, the results of four experiments show that participants are more preferable to deteriorating sequences when outcomes are money than when outcomes are consumable ones and the preference is meditated by the goals of “getting better outcomes quickly” and “outcomes becoming better”.

The results have implications for researchers when studying intertemporal choice and for practitioners when designing policies or management measures involving intertemporal sequences.

Key words: intertemporal choice, sequence choice, consumption, money, discounting

摘要： 在跨期选择的研究中, 决策者偏好递增还是递减序列存在争论。本研究提出不同的结果类型（金钱结果 vs. 消费结果）导致了决策者在序列中偏好不一致的现象。结果发现：（1）在消费结果下, 决策者偏好递增序列;在金钱结果下, 决策者偏好递减序列; （2）收益目标（尽快获得更好的结果）和改善目标（获得的结果越来越好）的目标凸显性在其中起到了中介作用, 决策者在金钱结果序列中更注重收益目标, 而在消费结果序列中更注重改善目标; （3）金钱结果序列的选项内部结构（梯度大小）会影响两个冲突目标的凸显性, 从而影响决策者偏好递减的程度。本文提示研究者和管理者需区分结果类别的不同对序列偏好的影响。

关键词: 跨期选择, 序列选择, 消费结果, 金钱结果, 折扣

Jiang Chengming, Chen Lina, Ma Jiatao, Wang Lei, He Quan, Sun Qingzhou, Sun Hongyue. Comparison of Preferences For Sequences of Consumption with that of Money: The Mediating Role of Goal Salience[J]. Journal of Psychological Science, 2023, 46(6): 1368-1374.

江程铭, 陈李娜, 马家涛, 王蕾, 何铨, 孙庆洲, 孙红月. 金钱和消费结果的序列偏好比较：目标凸显性的中介作用 ^*[J]. 心理科学, 2023, 46(6): 1368-1374.

References

[1] Bickel W. K., Miller M. L., Yi R., Kowal B. P., Lindquist D. M., & Pitcock J. A. (2007). Behavioral and neuroeconomics of drug addiction: Competing neural systems and temporal discounting processes. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 90(1), S85-S91.
[2] Frederick, S., & Loewenstein, G. (2008). Conflicting motives in evaluations of sequences. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 37(2), 221-235.
[3] Frederick S., Loewenstein G., & O'Donoghue T. (2002). Time discounting and time preference: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 40(2), 351-401.
[4] Garcia A., Torrecillas M. J. M., & Rambaud S. C. (2020). The improving sequence effect on monetary sequences. Heliyon, 6(12), Article E05643.
[5] Hershfield H. E., Goldstein D. G., Sharpe W. F., Fox J., Yeykelis L., Carstensen L. L., & Bailenson J. N. (2011). Increasing saving behavior through age-progressed renderings of the future self. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(SPL), S23-S37.
[6] JASP Team. (2020). JASP (Version 0.13.1). https://jasp-stats.org/
[7] Jiang C. M., Sun H. M., Zhu L. F., Zhao L., Liu H. Z., & Sun H. Y. (2017). Better is worse, worse is better: Reexamination of violations of dominance in intertemporal choice. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(3), 253-259.
[8] Johnson, M. W., & Bickel, W. K. (2002). Within-subject comparison of real and hypothetical money rewards in delay discounting. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 77(2), 129-146.
[9] Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
[10] Krantz, D. H., & Kunreuther, H. C. (2007). Goals and plans in decision making. Judgment and Decision Making, 2(3), 137-168.
[11] Lempert, K. M., & Phelps, E. A. (2016). The malleability of intertemporal choice. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 20(1), 64-74.
[12] Loewenstein, G., & Sicherman, N. (1991). Do workers prefer increasing wage profiles? Journal of Labor Economics, 9(1), 67-84.
[13] Loewenstein, G. F., & Prelec, D. (1991). Negative time preference. American Economic Review, 81(2), 347-352.
[14] Loewenstein, G. F., & Prelec, D. (1993). Preferences for sequences of outcomes. Psychological Review, 100(1), 91-108.
[15] Madden G. J., Begotka A. M., Raiff B. R., & Kastern L. L. (2003). Delay discounting of real and hypothetical rewards. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology, 11(2), 139-145.
[16] Scholten M., Read D., & Sanborn A. (2016). Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145(9), 1177-1205.
[17] Thaler, R. (1981). Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency. Economics Letters, 8(3), 201-207.
[18] Urminsky, O., & Kivetz, R. (2011). Scope insensitivity and the "mere token" effect. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(2), 282-295.
[19] Warren C., McGraw A. P., & van Boven L. (2011). Values and preferences: Defining preference construction. WIREs Cognitive Science, 2(2), 193-205.
[20] Wilson, J. M. (2021). Financial literacy, experience, and age differences in monetary sequence preferences (Unpublished master's thesis). West Virginia University.