Overcoming the Negative Effects of Perceived Bad Luck on the Preference of Uncertain Products

Wang Lu; Luo Shucheng; Liu Xinyan; Mao Songping

doi:10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20250116

PDF(1816 KB)

Journal of Psychological Science ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1) : 164-176. DOI: 10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20250116

Social，Personality & Organizational Psychology

Overcoming the Negative Effects of Perceived Bad Luck on the Preference of Uncertain Products

Wang Lu, Luo Shucheng, Liu Xinyan, Mao Songping

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Uncertain products are items whose exact attributes are unknown to consumers at the time of purchase, essentially offering the opportunity to obtain any specific attribute from a set of possibilities. The introduction of uncertainty into products, such as probabilistic items and blind boxes, has become a common strategy, reflecting strong consumer interest at the market. However, this consumption pattern reveals complex consumer psychology. While uncertain products can evoke positive emotions like surprise and satisfy the need for stimulation, they may also trigger anxiety due to potential expectation mismatches. This study investigates the impact of perceived luck on consumer preferences for uncertain products. This study demonstrates that perceived bad luck reduces preference for these products due to heightened expectations of negative outcomes. Importantly, the research reveals that this effect can be mitigated by performing a fling gesture with a smartphone.
Study 1 (N=360) examined the effect of perceived bad luck on consumer preferences for uncertain products. Participants were randomly assigned to 3-cell (perceived luck: bad vs. good vs. control) between-subjects design. Results revealed that participants in the perceived bad luck condition exhibited significantly lower attitudes and purchase intentions towards uncertain products compared to those in the perceived good luck or control conditions. Notably, no significant difference was found between the perceived good luck and control conditions. The study also ruled out need for variety as an alternative explanation for these effects.
Study 2 (N=240) tested the mediating effect of expectations of negative outcomes. Participants’ perceived luck was manipulated through a simulated a daily experience (snatching a red envelope in WeChat). This study employed a 2-cell (perceived luck: bad vs. good) between-subjects design. Results replicated the findings from Study 1, demonstrating that perceived bad luck (vs. perceived good luck) reduces consumers’ preference for uncertain products, as evidenced by lower purchase intentions and less favorable product attitudes. Importantly, expectations of negative outcomes were found to mediate this effect. While mood also significantly mediated the relationship, its effect was substantially weaker than that of negative outcome expectancies.
Study 3 (N=480) tested the moderating effect of performing a fling gesture with smartphones on the effect of perceived luck on preference for uncertain products. Participants’ perceived luck was manipulated through a promotional game. All participants were randomly assigned to a 2 (perceived luck: bad vs. good) × 2 (fling gesture with smartphones: yes vs. no) between-subjects design. Results replicated the findings in study 2 that perceived bad luck (vs. perceived good luck) reduces consumers’ preference for uncertain products due to stronger expectations of negative outcomes. However, performing a fling gesture on a smartphone moderates the effect. Specifically, the negative effect of perceived bad luck on preferences for uncertain products was attenuated after participants performed the fling gesture.
Study 4 (N=95) employed a Single-Category Implicit Association Test (SC-IAT) to examine the proposed association between “fling” and negativity. The study used a 2 × 2 mixed design: task compatibility (compatible vs. incompatible, within-subjects) and task order (compatible first vs. incompatible first, between-subjects). Response time served as the dependent variable. Results showed participants reacted faster in compatible tasks (associating “fling” with negative words) compared to incompatible tasks (associating “fling” with positive words).
To summarize, this study explores the negative impact of perceived luck, particularly bad luck, on consumers' preferences for uncertain products. Importantly, we found that expectations of negative outcomes mediate this effect. We also investigated a method to mitigate this negative impact: performing a fling gesture with a smartphone. This research provides a new theoretical perspective for understanding the relationship between perceived luck and consumer behavior towards uncertain products. Additionally, it offers valuable insights for companies to design effective coping strategies, enabling them to better leverage marketing strategies involving uncertainty to achieve their goals.

Key words

uncertain products / perceived luck / interactive gestures / negative outcome expectancy

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

Wang Lu, Luo Shucheng, Liu Xinyan, Mao Songping. Overcoming the Negative Effects of Perceived Bad Luck on the Preference of Uncertain Products[J]. Journal of Psychological Science. 2025, 48(1): 164-176 https://doi.org/10.16719/j.cnki.1671-6981.20250116

References

[1] 勤策消费研究. (2023). 中国盲盒行业发展趋势报告. https://www.baogaoting.com/info/505133
[2] 申汝敏, 孟陆, 焦腾啸. (2022). 抽奖促销未中奖始终是不好的?——未中奖次数对创新产品购买意愿的影响. 营销科学学报, 2(1), 69-82.
[3] 徐琳宏, 林鸿飞, 潘宇, 任惠, 陈建美. (2008). 情感词汇本体的构造. 情报学报, 27(2), 180-185.
[4] 殷融, 苏得权, 叶浩生. (2013). 具身认知视角下的概念隐喻理论. 心理科学进展, 21(2), 220-234.
[5] 曾良. (2016). “甩”字的形音义考. 中国语文, 1, 110-117.
[6] Buechel, E. C., & Li, R. O. (2023). Mysterious consumption: Preference for horizontal (vs. vertical) uncertainty and the role of surprise. Journal of Consumer Research, 49(6), 987-1013.
[7] Cacioppo J. T., Priester J. R., & Berntson G. G. (1993). Rudimentary determinants of attitudes. II: Arm flexion and extension have differential effects on attitudes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65(1), 5-17.
[8] Carlson B. D., Mowen J. C., & Fang X. (2009). Trait superstition and consumer behavior: Re-conceptualization, measurement, and initial investigations. Psychology and Marketing, 26(8), 689-713.
[9] Chen, H. T., & Yuan, J. X. (2014). Blind savings or unforeseen costs? How consumers perceive the benefits and risks of using opaque travel selling web sites. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 20(4), 309-322.
[10] Darke, P. R., & Freedman, J. L. (1997a). The belief in good luck scale. Journal of Research in Personality, 31(4), 486-511.
[11] Darke, P. R., & Freedman, J. L. (1997b). Lucky events and beliefs in luck: Paradoxical effects on confidence and risk-taking. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23(4), 378-388.
[12] Fan, L. Y., & Jiang, Y. W. (2018). Don' t surprise me: How social relationships shape consumers' attitudes toward probabilistic selling. Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, 3(3), 440-450.
[13] Fay, S. (2008). Selling an opaque product through an intermediary: The case of disguising one' s product. Journal of Retailing, 84(1), 59-75.
[14] Fay, S., & Xie, J. (2008). Probabilistic goods: A creative way of selling products and services. Marketing Science, 27(4), 674-690.
[15] Fisman R., Huang W., Ning B., Pan Y., Qiu J. P., & Wang Y. X. (2023). Superstition and risk taking: Evidence from "zodiac year" beliefs in China. Management Science, 69(9), 5174-5188.
[16] Hadi, R., & Valenzuela, A. (2020). Good vibrations: Consumer responses to technology-mediated haptic feedback. Journal of Consumer Research, 47(2), 256-271.
[17] Hamerman, E. J., & Johar, G. V. (2013). Conditioned superstition: Desire for control and consumer brand preferences. Journal of Consumer Research, 40(3), 428-443.
[18] Hayes A. F.(2017). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis: A regression-based approach. The Guilford Press.
[19] Ho C. M., Grossman D. M., Salerno A., & Clarkson J. J. (2024). Goal paralysis: How bad luck affects goal commitment. Motivation and Emotion, 48(1), 1-16.
[20] Hock S. J., Bagchi R., & Anderson T. M. (2020). Promotional games increase consumer conversion rates and spending. Journal of Consumer Research, 47(1), 79-99.
[21] Hung, I. W., & Labroo, A. A. (2011). From firm muscles to firm willpower: Understanding the role of embodied cognition in self-regulation. Journal of Consumer Research, 37(6), 1046-1064.
[22] Jiang Y. W., Cho A., & Adaval R. (2009). The unique consequences of feeling lucky: Implications for consumer behavior. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 19(2), 171-184.
[23] Johnson J., Tellis G. J., & Macinnis D. J. (2005). Losers, winners, and biased trades. Journal of Consumer Research, 32(2), 324-329.
[24] Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
[25] Karpinski, A., & Steinman, R. B. (2006). The single category implicit association test as a measure of implicit social cognition. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 91(1), 16-32.
[26] Kim H., Kulow K., & Kramer T. (2014). The interactive effect of beliefs in malleable fate and fateful predictions on choice. Journal of Consumer Research, 40(6), 1139-1148.
[27] Kim H. S., Rockloff M., Leslie D., McGrath D. S., Wohl M. J. A., & Hodgins D. C. (2021). Offering small tangible rewards within social casino games increases in-play bets but does not impact real-money gambling. Addictive Behaviors, 120, Article 106984.
[28] Laporte, S., & Briers, B. (2019). Similarity as a double-edged sword: The positive and negative effects of showcasing similar previous winners on perceived likelihood of winning in sweepstakes. Journal of Consumer Research, 45(6), 1331-1349.
[29] Li J. R., Guo J. M., Hu N., & Tang K. (2021). Do corporate managers believe in luck? Evidence of the Chinese zodiac effect. International Review of Financial Analysis, 77, Article 101861.
[30] Li, T. Y., & Gal, D. (2024). Consumers prefer natural medicines more when treating psychological than physical conditions. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 34(3), 425-444.
[31] Melumad, S., & Pham, M. T. (2020). The smartphone as a pacifying technology. Journal of Consumer Research, 47(2), 237-255.
[32] Messner, C., & Vosgerau, J. (2010). Cognitive inertia and the implicit association test. Journal of Marketing Research, 47(2), 374-386.
[33] Philipp-Muller A., Costello J. P., & Reczek R. W. (2023). Get your science out of here: When does invoking science in the marketing of consumer products backfire? Journal of Consumer Research, 49(5), 721-740.
[34] Rice D. H., Fay S. A., & Xie J. H. (2014). Probabilistic selling vs. Markdown selling: Price discrimination and management of demand uncertainty in retailing. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 31(2), 147-155.
[35] Su L., Jiang Y. W., Chen Z. S., & DeWall C. N. (2017). Social exclusion and consumer switching behavior: A control restoration mechanism. Journal of Consumer Research, 44(1), 99-117.
[36] van Trijp, H. C. M., Hoyer W. D., & Inman J. J. (1996). Why switch? Product category-Level explanations for true variety-seeking behavior. Journal of Marketing Research, 33(3), 281-292.
[37] van Den Bergh B., Schmitt J., & Warlop L. (2011). Embodied myopia. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(6), 1033-1044.
[38] Voorberg W., Jilke S., Tummers L., & Bekkers V. (2018). Financial rewards do not stimulate coproduction: Evidence from two experiments. Public Administration Review, 78(6), 864-873.
[39] Wang L. H., Guo Z. Y., & Ke X. (2021). Lucky events and the need for uniqueness. Psychological Reports, 124(4), 1807-1823.
[40] Wohl, M. J. A., & Enzle, M. E. (2002). The deployment of personal luck: Sympathetic magic and illusory control in games of pure chance. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 28(10), 1388-1397.
[41] Wohl, M. J. A., & Enzle, M. E. (2003). The effects of near wins and near losses on self-perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 39(2), 184-191.
[42] Xu A. J., Zwick R., & Schwarz N. (2012). Washing away your (good or bad) luck: Physical cleansing affects risk-taking behavior. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 141(1), 26-30.
[43] Xu, X., & Liu, J. (2024). Promotional games in service recovery: Luck works. Annals of Tourism Research, 105, Article 103691.
[44] Zheng Q., Pan X. A., & Carrillo J. E. (2019). Probabilistic selling for vertically differentiated products with salient thinkers. Marketing Science, 38(3), 442-460.