The Effects of Tolerance of Uncertainty on Intertemporal Choices and its Context-Dependency

Journal of Psychological Science ›› 2015, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3) : 680-685.

Journal of Psychological Science ›› 2015, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3) : 680-685.

The Effects of Tolerance of Uncertainty on Intertemporal Choices and its Context-Dependency

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Abstract

Tolerance of uncertainty (TU) is defined as individual differences in the tendency to react emotionally, cognitively, or behaviorally to uncertain situations. Many studies had shown that individuals low in TU appeared to have information processing biases. Evidence is accumulating that TU contributes to the symptoms associated with multiple anxiety and depressive disorders, and thus may be better understood as a transdiagnostic construct. Though TU has been related to a variety of cognitive and emotional constructs, it is still not clearly for us about the behavioral consequences of TU.   Time discounting refers to the reduction in the present, subjective value of outcomes that are temporally distant in the future. The decrease in value of a delayed reward may be due to the risk inherent in waiting: with increases in delay, there is a decrease in the certainty that the reward will be obtained. Little research has been conducted to explore the influences of the individual differences in TU on the preference in intertemporal choices. So the current study investigates how TU, money amount and temporal distance interact to predict individual differences in delay discounting using the choice titration procedure. We first hypothesize that TU significantly influenced the preference in intertemporal choices, participants with low TU have the higher degree of discounting future than participants with high TU. Second, we hypothesize that the effect of TU may differ depending on task characteristics(i.e., money amount, temporal distance).   474 undergraduate were divided into two groups according to their scores from the intolerance of uncertainty scale, as groups with high and low TU levels in accordance with the high-low-27-percent group method. Hence, a total of 256 students were included in the study. The experiment employed 2 (tolerance of uncertainty: high vs. low )× 2 (reward magnitude: 200 yuan vs.1000 yuan) × 2(temporal distance: 14 days vs. 180 days) mixed experimental design with money amount as the within-participants variable and the other two as between-participants variables, the dependent variable is their discount factor. Repeated Measurement ANOVA were performed to analyze the data. The results showed that: the main effects of money amount were significant, the discount factor in the large money amount level was higher than that in the small level, indicating the presence of a magnitude effect. The main effects of temporal distance were significant, indicating that the degree of discounting decreased when extending the received times of the rewards. Compared to the participants with high TU, the participants with low TU had a lower discount factor only when the rewarded money was set at 200 yuan to receive 180 days later. That is say, individuals with low TU overestimation of time may lead to overestimation of the cost of revenue, which would result in his/her impulsive choices in intertemporal choices. There was no significant effect of TU on decision preference in intertemporal choice under the other task features.   In conclusion, the present study suggested that TU can influence the preference in intertemporal choices and the influence is context-dependent, in which factors like money amount and temporal distance play a role. Implications of these results and directions for future research was discussed.

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tolerance of uncertainty, intertemporal choice, discount factor, individual differences

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The Effects of Tolerance of Uncertainty on Intertemporal Choices and its Context-Dependency[J]. Journal of Psychological Science. 2015, 38(3): 680-685

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