Abstract: Uncertain products are items whose exact attributes are unknown to consumers at the time of purchase, essentially offering the opportunity to obtain any specific attribute from a set of possibilities. The introduction of uncertainty into products, such as probabilistic items and blind boxes, has become a common strategy, reflecting strong consumer interest at the market. However, this consumption pattern reveals complex consumer psychology. While uncertain products can evoke positive emotions like surprise and satisfy the need for stimulation, they may also trigger anxiety due to potential expectation mismatches. This study investigates the impact of perceived luck on consumer preferences for uncertain products. This study demonstrates that perceived bad luck reduces preference for these products due to heightened expectations of negative outcomes. Importantly, the research reveals that this effect can be mitigated by performing a fling gesture with a smartphone.
Study 1 (N=360) examined the effect of perceived bad luck on consumer preferences for uncertain products. Participants were randomly assigned to 3-cell (perceived luck: bad vs. good vs. control) between-subjects design. Results revealed that participants in the perceived bad luck condition exhibited significantly lower attitudes and purchase intentions towards uncertain products compared to those in the perceived good luck or control conditions. Notably, no significant difference was found between the perceived good luck and control conditions. The study also ruled out need for variety as an alternative explanation for these effects.
Study 2 (N=240) tested the mediating effect of expectations of negative outcomes. Participants’ perceived luck was manipulated through a simulated a daily experience (snatching a red envelope in WeChat). This study employed a 2-cell (perceived luck: bad vs. good) between-subjects design. Results replicated the findings from Study 1, demonstrating that perceived bad luck (vs. perceived good luck) reduces consumers’ preference for uncertain products, as evidenced by lower purchase intentions and less favorable product attitudes. Importantly, expectations of negative outcomes were found to mediate this effect. While mood also significantly mediated the relationship, its effect was substantially weaker than that of negative outcome expectancies.
Study 3 (N=480) tested the moderating effect of performing a fling gesture with smartphones on the effect of perceived luck on preference for uncertain products. Participants’ perceived luck was manipulated through a promotional game. All participants were randomly assigned to a 2 (perceived luck: bad vs. good) × 2 (fling gesture with smartphones: yes vs. no) between-subjects design. Results replicated the findings in study 2 that perceived bad luck (vs. perceived good luck) reduces consumers’ preference for uncertain products due to stronger expectations of negative outcomes. However, performing a fling gesture on a smartphone moderates the effect. Specifically, the negative effect of perceived bad luck on preferences for uncertain products was attenuated after participants performed the fling gesture.
Study 4 (N=95) employed a Single-Category Implicit Association Test (SC-IAT) to examine the proposed association between “fling” and negativity. The study used a 2 × 2 mixed design: task compatibility (compatible vs. incompatible, within-subjects) and task order (compatible first vs. incompatible first, between-subjects). Response time served as the dependent variable. Results showed participants reacted faster in compatible tasks (associating “fling” with negative words) compared to incompatible tasks (associating “fling” with positive words).
To summarize, this study explores the negative impact of perceived luck, particularly bad luck, on consumers' preferences for uncertain products. Importantly, we found that expectations of negative outcomes mediate this effect. We also investigated a method to mitigate this negative impact: performing a fling gesture with a smartphone. This research provides a new theoretical perspective for understanding the relationship between perceived luck and consumer behavior towards uncertain products. Additionally, it offers valuable insights for companies to design effective coping strategies, enabling them to better leverage marketing strategies involving uncertainty to achieve their goals.

Key words: uncertain products, perceived luck, interactive gestures, negative outcome expectancy

摘要： 在产品中引入不确定性是一种常见的销售策略,如概率产品、盲盒等。以往有关不确定性产品的研究忽略了感知运气这一影响人们在不确定性情境中行为决策的关键因素。由于人们对运气普遍持有非理性信念,考察感知运气对消费者不确定性产品偏好的负面影响及其化解机制显得尤为重要。四个实验结果表明,感知坏运气(vs. 感知好运气)使消费者对不确定性产品的偏好降低,这是因为处于感知坏运气下的消费者对获得消极结果具有更强的预期。但在执行甩一甩交互手势(vs.不执行)后,感知坏运气对不确定性产品偏好的负面影响弱化甚至消失。研究结果将感知运气引入不确定性产品研究领域,丰富交互手势相关研究,为企业制定不确定性产品营销策略提供了实践启示。

关键词: 不确定性产品, 感知运气, 交互手势, 消极结果预期