Abstract: This article makes a systematic investigation on emotional forecasting accuracy of teacher on the basis of the typical education situations through three studies. The three studies were conducted in the school to the scene, including two stages of teachers' predicted emotion measurement and students' emotional experience measurement, which take the design of teacher-student paired study. We invite 21 teachers to predict the tense feeling of the paired 8 or 10 students in the 1st study; and 16 teachers forecast two paired students’ pleasant and shame mood when faced with different parenting style in the 2nd one. The third group has 18 teachers and the corresponding number students, and the teachers forecast the students’ positive high-arousal and positive low-arousal emotions when they are subject to positive expectations. The three studies have multi-samples, are cross-situational, and take different emotion measurement methods, which show that: in a typical situation of education, teachers fail to accurately predict student emotions, and there appear apparent bias in their prediction; what’s more, compared with the basic emotion, teachers predict more inaccurately to students’ complex emotions ; compared with positive low-arousal emotions, teacher predict more inaccurately to students’ positive high-arousal emotions. Despite of inaccuracies of teachers' emotional forecasting to students’ emotion, there is not obvious overestimation or underestimation of trend. The research is close to current educational practice, has good ecological validity, and tries to explore the emotion measurement method, accuracy of statistical indicators, but there are also certain limitations, i.e. a small amount of samples.

Key words: teacher, emotional forecasting, accuracy, typical situational, method

摘要： 采取师生配对研究设计，选择典型教育情境，系统考察了教师对学生情绪预测的准确性。跨样本、跨情境的三个现场研究结果表明：教师未能准确预测学生情绪，出现了明显的预测偏差。较之基本情绪，教师对学生复杂情绪的预测更不准确；较之低唤醒情绪，教师对高唤醒情绪的预测更不准确；尽管教师预测不准，但并未出现明显的高低估趋势。研究贴近教育实际，具有良好的生态学效度，并在情绪测量方法、准确性统计指标方面进行了新的探索。

关键词: 教师, 情绪预测, 准确性, 典型情境, 研究方法